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Whatever she may say, Theresa May won’t fight the next election

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guest-ajwmeols

Not for the first time in an article in this newspaper, you tout Ruth Davidson as a UK Tory leader. As and I and others have also previously written, she is woefully under qualified for the role. In fact she is now coming under a little bit of pressure in Scotland. Indeed some Tories are looking at her and asking what are her policies on a number of key issues. To date she has offered little on these issues.

Yachtreader

"Mrs May’s biggest test in the short-term is to reassert her power in order to stop her party from tearing itself apart."

Well that is an interesting challenge when the events and misstankes leading up to exactly that is already done.

Theresa Maybe has already made all the worst possible misstankes,Brexit means Brexit and no deal is better than a bad deal are just two positions that are impossible to back down from and than adding a referendum disaster to that ..well no one is looking at her future with envy...

I do agree with Morgan Stanleys prediction that the government will fall next year and the outcome of that referendum will be anything but positive for the Tory party. The voters will have to judge the Tory party for the initiation of the Brexit debacle and up to the point where every leave promise has been proven to be just fancy fantasies.

What is even worse from my point of view is that it will pave the way for a possible Labour victory at the same time as the economy will take a substantial hit leading to a couple of years of likely overspending and continuous economical challenges.

A divided Tory party has for sure proven that the divide within the party will lead to very high costs for the party as well as the UK. Any chance to make things even worse?

For sure, why not start trade agreements before leaving the EU so the EU 27 will stop the negotiation process totally.

Why not let Boris the clown make some stupid remarks with references to WW2 , it will for sure convince more EU citizens than the French that the UK should just leave without any deal.

Why not just ignore the growing number of citizens "on the continent" that day by day get more and more upset by what they perceive as British arrogance.

The mess has just started and the clock is ticking.

Latest proof in the pudding is that the guvernement admits to what they best case can achieve is "copy paste" trade deals with a number of states that will be just what already exists via the EU.

Perhaps that was the true meaning behind "Brexit means Brexit and of course also that it is absolutely essential not to loose access to the single market no matter what the price is.

Call it a " transitional deal" as much as you like but in reality it is nothing but backpedaling from everything that was promised by the leave side and it is nothing but an attempt to buy much needed time to reverse the folly.

People in the UK should really ask them selves why politicians in the EU 27 should save the UK from the self inflicted mess, long term it is more beneficial for the club with a clean and painful clear cut. The UK will be coming crawling back on the knees eventually and then the circle will be completed ( minus the companies etc that have had to move).

The Tory party will have to bear the responsibility for the long term consequences and the party´s proven lack of connection with reality.

Perhaps the Brits just as the French need a totally new party and and some person that lacks the political connections with the old failing parties?

Will be interesting to see what will happen 2018!

Tick Tick Tick.........

FernandoTorresIsGod

The wide variety of social backgrounds of the talented Tory youngsters encompasses Winchester and Oxford (Sunak), Eton and Cambridge (Kwarteng), Eton and Oxford (Stewart), and St Paul's and Cambridge (Tugendhat). But of course the Tories are very much in touch with ordinary folk.

Their only hope is Davidson. I personally hope that the Economist is wrong about Rees-Mogg's chances. The superficial charm he presents might wreck the Tories for a generation once the population realise what a swivel-eyed, self-serving right winger he is

African Recycler 2

And if the Tories tear themselves apart and the government falls and Labour do a similar trick and a new party coalesces out of the miasma with some better ideas, policies and leaders would that be worse?

African Recycler 2 in reply to Mirador

Miradorin, Agreed but wonder if a former officer at Brexit dept and former Daily Mail brexit journalist who has presumably had some form of damascene conversion is the person to run it, nor a former PM if it is to open new ground. Mrs Sturgeon is good but not of the Commons, can I become con Vinced? His deputy perhaps? Perhaps the week ahead will shake things up a bit on the green benches when some action is obligatgory, or will the sheep be herded as so often? Breath not being held!

Mirador in reply to African Recycler 2

African Recycler 2

Lets be open in these debates and refrain from puzzling notes or tricks!
The new political party needs to be credible and appeal to a newly defined audience. I doubt whether Tony Blair will be able to or willing to head it. The new organisation needs to 'sold' carefully but time is not available.
Blair's centre ground theories were excellent. He has been punished enough for the Iraq war.

Mirador in reply to African Recycler 2

African Recycler 2

Lets be open in these debates and refrain from puzzling notes or tricks!
The new political party needs to be credible and appeal to a newly defined audience. I doubt whether Tony Blair will be able to or willing to head it. The new organisation needs to 'sold' carefully but time is not available.
Blair's centre ground theories were excellent. He has been punished enough for the Iraq war.

Mirador in reply to African Recycler 2

African Recycler 2

Lets be open in these debates and refrain from puzzling notes or tricks!
The new political party needs to be credible and appeal to a newly defined audience. I doubt whether Tony Blair will be able to or willing to head it. The new organisation needs to 'sold' carefully but time is not available.
Blair's centre ground theories were excellent. He has been punished enough for the Iraq war.

baldy 63

This writer like the rest of the media, is desperate to hang on to their job and income by writing stuff that purports to show insight and wisdom but instead illustrates nonsense. Why not just stick to the obvious and simple facts:
p
With the party conference bun fights coming up, of course she has to say "I'm here for the long term" because nobody wants a lame duck leader. She is probably totally secure up to 19th March 2019 because even the most Lemming brained MP in the Conservative party wouldn't want her job this side of Brexit because whatever the eventual outcome, she will please neither the Leavers nor the Remainers and therein lies another factor. Depending on the nature of that deal and how the general public (not the media) views it, she may emerge as she did originally, as the only game in town that is acceptable to both Tory leavers and remainers.
p
The truth is that only a fool would try and predict the outcome of her leadership right now, there are way too many factors, most external and completely outside of anybody's control. Given the rather daft stance of the EU over the Brexit talks which is them wanting the UK to promise vast sums of money before they even talk of a 'package' that includes the broad outline of future trade relations is another key factor. She will not make the same mistake as Cameron and try a political impossibility of trying to sell that to the UK electorate, remember a majority voted for out, if she has to dig in over this, that might well hand May her "Falklands" moment with the British electorate and it is them not the 'Metropolitan Elite' that matter.
p
The point is that the whole situation is totally unpredictable so put your crystal ball away Mystic Meg and don't give up the day job. Just go back to writing your usual drivel about "How terrible Brexit is...oh woe, woe a and thousand times woe..." that'll keep your Editor happy.

Yachtreader in reply to baldy 63

Dear baldy 63,

Unpredictable situation?

Do not think so. It looks very predictable. A minority government is trying to achieve the impossible and are in a negotiation situation against the clock as well as 27 well coordinated nations that has decided that in reality no deal is better than a bad deal that would undermine the union.

Sorry from my horizon it is nothing but wishful thinking that the outcome can be what the UK has on its political wish list.

It will never be an eat your cake and have it outcome , it will never be any deal without the "bill" being paid but you are right in that the British electorate will be furious at the outcome. A political nightmare of course.

Who will they blame? ( except the terrible EU bureaucrats)

My guess is the Tory party and the leave politicians that was promising fantasies.

baldy 63 in reply to Yachtreader

You are 'banging on' about Brexit as if there is only one outcome that is in the UK's favour which is continued trading as if Brexit didn't happen but that may not be true a 'No Deal' might prove better for the British economy and it's politics because whatever the initial pain, the UK will prosper quicker than the EU from the fallout. Either way an EU stance that says "The EU is more important than Brexit so we the EU are happy there is no deal" whilst understandable, will not solve the EU's main Brexit problem which is a missing 10 billion Euros each year for the budget nor their really big problem of that "magic suit of clothes" the Euro itself.
p
It is an interesting game played in "interesting times" and you are wrong, whether in the terms of May's leadership which is what this article is about, whether the Tory Party gets trashed by Brexit or what the final terms of the separation deal are, none of these are totally predictable, straight line logic rarely works in these cases and we already have the proof. Statistically there was absolutely no way given that UKIP polled under 4 million votes nationwide in the 2015 general election that just over a year later over 17 million people would vote Leave, the EU has never been a vote winning/losing concern for the electorate. Even in this recent general election where May lost her majority, an open goal to demonstrate "buyers remorse" over Brexit, it didn't happen, the message is solid, when will "those arrogant people who always know better", at least according to them, wake up and hear it, high time they did.

Yachtreader in reply to baldy 63

Respectfully Baldy 63, we do not see things the same way.

I am really not happy or gloating about the present situation but the truth is that a hard Brexit will be very painful.
Why do you think the Pound has taken such a very heavy beating?

Facts are against any outcome but a very bad one for the UK economy and any alternative take on what is possible is from my point of view nothing but utter folly and fantasies produced by dreamers.

Right now the EU economies are growing far better than the UK so first taking a hit and then catching up...well I see that you have some sort of very long dream based scenario or?

What is really talking against your perspective is in addition to what is previously mentioned lower productivity growth in the UK compared to relevant comparison and the fact that the UK will have the same challenge regarding an aging population as for instance Germany. It is really unfortunate that the UK export has not responded on par with two major stimuli, lower Pound and extremely low interest rates.

You can probably find a lot of explanations, my take on it is that UK companies really do not believe in their future possibilities to capitalize on this situation ( as well as over seas investors..) and perhaps it is due to the fact that people investing their own money tend to be a bit more prone to facing reality then loudmouths living in a political la,la land.

Cheers to la la land and fantasies, reality is that big fish eat small fish and the clock is ticking!

Enjoy the ride!

puupoika

@ A J Maher
Yeah, right, but Boris is still a plonker, sorry: does anyone of note take him seriously? I don't think so...

A J Maher

The irony is that Ms. May was herself considered (by the Economist amongst others) to be the "safest pair of hands" only one short year ago. Boris may be as unthinkable to the chattering classes now as he was then but this bitchy establishment backbiting aside Boris is mostly loathed because he is popular and Ms. May was considered reliable because she was not.
.
Nobody in the Tory party has an electoral record that can touch Boris's. He won two back to back elections as London Mayor in the UK's largest and most diverse constituency. He led a leave campaign that triumphed in the largest national plebiscite in British political history. In the general election Boris was muzzled and the grey political duo of May and Hammond ran the worst political campaign in the history of the conservative party.
.
As far as the Tories are concerned deciding on who the establishment drones prefer as leader is only useful as a guide of who not to pick if you want big wins at election time........

baldy 63 in reply to A J Maher

Totally agree, the problem with all politicians of whatever party is a combination of spite, envy and their own egos which is hardly a surprise as if you pay peanuts you only get monkeys. Boris Johnson has committed the worse crime imaginable to the inhabitants of the "Westminster Bubble" the obvious inhabitants in the politicians plus their 'familiars' in the media, it is an affront to these people that he can never live down. Both in journalism and politics, he has already achieved far more than the vast majority of them will ever achieve in their respective careers, I marvel that he hasn't been assassinated apart of course by Gove. "Et tu Gove ?" BoJo will only be offered the Tory crown if the ship is actually sinking.

zGyKVpvPzH in reply to A J Maher

Where is your evidence for claiming that Boris Johnson "is mostly loathed because he is popular" rather than because he's demonstrably incompetent, unintelligent, unprincipled, entitled, and he has severely damaged the UK's international reputation and credibility for years to come?

Mirador in reply to A J Maher

Boris loves stunts as far as national politics are concerned. He led the Leave campaign for no better reason than wanting to lead the country. But it misfired. A weaker May brought him in to balance the Cabinet.

Langosta

"Remember that this is a woman who called an election that she didn’t need to call, only to turn a majority government into a minority one; who blew a 27-point lead in the opinion polls; who almost lost to an ageing leftist who has never held high office;"
===
Vlad Putin tanked her. According to Hillary Clinton, he's a guy who steals elections from old ladies.

guest-ojnelwj

"Mrs May has no more chance of leading the Tories into the next election than Jacob Rees-Mogg," writes TE. Why the dig at Mr Rees-Mogg (and without any evidence to back up the comment)?

Could it be because he polls as out of touch and privileged, and even before a leadership campaign YouGov has him with a net approval rating of -14%?

He's an old fashioned social conservative and that shit doesn't fly in a national election any more. Ask Tim Farron how well a perception of being against gay marriage goes down with the public, and he voted FOR marriage equality!

Rees mogg is 2017's version of 2005 boris johnson.

Barracuda008

The fundamental point is that the UK has failed in a terrible situation. The Labour opposition has transformed in a band of socialist-communist brainless fanatics that want to create a Venezuela in Europe (or a Cuba or a URSS) and do not offer any alternative except the complete destruction of the country. Now, the Conservatives are the only hope and everyone must do the utmost to eliminate the leaderless Mrs May that has zero capacity as a leader, campaigner and as a PM.
However, the focus is o make the brainless millennials to understand what socialism is and how destructive will be for them.
Perhaps the most important reason millennials are less concerned about socialism is that they associate socialism with Scandinavia, not the Soviet Union. Modern “socialism” today appears to be a gentler, kinder version. For instance, countries like Denmark, Sweden, and Norway offer a far more generous social safety net with much higher taxes.
In this view, government just covers people’s basic needs (from everybody’s pockets, of course), but doesn’t seize all the businesses and try to run them, or overtly attempt to control people’s consciences.
These countries actually are not socialist, but “socialistic.” To accommodate their massive social welfare spending, these countries opened their economies to free-market forces in the 1990s, sold off state-owned companies, eased restrictions on business start-ups, reduced barriers to trade and business regulation, and introduced more competition into health care and public services.
In fact, today these countries outrank the United States on business freedom, investment freedom, and property rights, according to the Heritage Economic Freedom Index. So, if anything, the lesson from Scandinavian countries is that market reforms, not socialist ones, explain their prosperity. Plus the immense ignorance of Millenials related history and what socialism did in Eastern Europe, Russia, Cuba. Venezuela, Zimbadge, North Korea etc and that is the only political system with a 100% disaster rate

Look, i have as poor an opinion of the current Labour leadership as anyone, but this is just nonsense. THEY. ARE. NOT. COMMUNISTS.

Saying so just reveals that you don't know what the word communist means or that you don't care because you think its a line of attack that works.

Furthermore describing them as such just leads to people laughing at Tory activists who espouse said opinion, and acts to stiffen the spine of those who DO support corbyn. Its a terrible waste when there are myriad legitimate criticisms of Corbyn that you could be using to greater effect.

Please for the sake of british democracy try harder & do better.

Oh and calling millenials stupid, when they're comfortably the most educated and informed generation in the countries history, is not really the way to get them to vote for someone other than Corbyn.

Sorry to correct you. They are socialist (Corbyn is a pure communist). Anyway, the difference between socialism and communism is that under communism there is not money (only labour vouchers). Themtechnically they are socialist exactly as Chavez, Maduro, Mugabe, Castro, Stalin, Chauchescu, etc
yes I know what the world socialism and communism mean from the time when I was 17 years old and I have to read The Kapital and the Manifest.
I am not calling Millenial stupid (they possibly know more about fashion and technology that many around). They are just brainless in political terms and extremely ignorants. Regrettably, I do not believe that there is anything that intelligent people can do to convince a generation of ignorants to change their mind.

Barracuda008 in reply to Eraserhead

Some FACTS
a) 30% of millennials vote for Brexit plus only 36% of them voted. That means that 73% of them YES 73% were so ignorants to allow Brexit.
b) If they are ignorant about something so basic imagine the immense ignorance with respect to the best economic /political system and what socialism is........

Barracuda008 in reply to Eraserhead

Yes fully agree that the Tories must offer a better alternative that Mrs May, virtually anyone in the Tory party is better and very few have some leadership capacity
Simple fact. There is not really free market in the UK. All the economy, financial system is overregulated and we have an immense welfare system that is unsustainable without MORE FREE MARKETS AND MORE CAPITALISM